Health Sector Economic Indicators Briefs

Altarum’s Health Sector Economic Indicators briefs are designed to address significant shortcomings in the availability of timely economic data on the health sector, including employment, spending, and prices. Published monthly, the reports are a product of Altarum's Center for Sustainable Health Spending.

May 2013 Health Sector Economic Indicators Briefs

National health care spending in March 2013 grew 3.8 percent relative to March 2012, one-tenth below the February rate, putting it below the record low levels seen annually in 2009 – 2011, and below our estimate of 4.3 percent for 2012. Meanwhile, health care employment may finally be slowing with an average gain of 19,000 jobs per month for 2013, compared with 27,000 per month during 2012. Health care prices in March 2013 were 1.6 percent higher than in March 2012, one-tenth below the February rise, and second lowest reading since December 1997’s 1.3 percent figure. The 12-month moving average at 1.9 percent is the lowest rate since a 1.8 percent reading recorded in October 1998.

April 2013 Health Sector Economic Indicators Briefs

National health care spending in February 2013 grew 3.9 percent relative to February 2012, a falling rate that returns it to the record low levels seen annually in 2009 – 2011, and below our estimate of 4.3 percent for 2012. Meanwhile, despite the recent pattern of historically low spending growth, the health sector now accounts for nearly 1 in 9 total U.S. jobs, a new all-time high at 10.74 percent. While health care price growth rose to 1.7 percent in February 2013 compared to February 2012, two-tenths above the January 2013 reading, this was still the second lowest rate since 1.3 percent growth recorded in December 1997. The 12-month moving average price growth at 1.9 percent in February 2013 is the lowest since the same figure recorded in November 1998. Health care employment rose by 23,000 jobs in March 2013, barely below the 24-month average of 24,000, but economy-wide employment rose by a disappointing 88,000, well below forecasts of approximately 200,000.

March 2013 Health Sector Economic Indicators Briefs

Health care prices in January 2013 were 1.5 percent higher than in January 2012, two-tenths lower than the December rise, and the lowest reading since a 1.3 percent rate in December 1997. The 12-month moving average at 2.0 percent is the lowest since a 1.9 percent figure recorded in November 1998. National health expenditures (NHE) in January 2013 grew at an annual rate of 4.1 percent relative to January 2012, the same rate as for December, and a level that would signify the fifth consecutive year of moderate spending growth. We estimate that NHE grew at an estimated annual rate of 4.3 percent in 2012, a bit higher than the 3.9 percent experienced for each of the years 2009-2011. Health care employment rose by 32,000 jobs in February 2013, surpassing the 24-month average of 24,000, but January was revised down to 13,000 from its originally reported figure of 23,000.

February 2013 Health Sector Economic Indicators Briefs

National health expenditures grew at an estimated annual rate of 4.3 percent in 2012, a bit higher than the 3.9 percent experienced for each of the years 2009-2011. While this estimate is subject to revisions, it portends a fourth consecutive year of record-low growth compared to all previous years in the 50-plus years of official health spending data. Health care prices in December 2012 rose by 1.7 percent compared to December 2011, the lowest year-over-year growth since February 1998. The 12-month moving average at 2.0 percent was the lowest reading since December 1998. Health care employment rose by a 23,000 jobs in January 2013, similar to the 24-month average of 24,000. So-called benchmark revisions reduced total 2011-2012 health jobs by 70,000 while boosting overall jobs by 598,000.

January 2013 Health Sector Economic Indicators Briefs (Spending and Prices)

Over the first 11 months of 2012, national health expenditures (NHE) grew at an annual rate of 4.3 percent, compared to the 3.9 percent increase for 2011 reflected in data released last week by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS). CMS also shows a 3.9 percent growth rate for 2009 and 2010 – the first time in the 50-plus years of official health spending data that growth was below 4 percent. 2012 is thus shaping up as the fourth straight year of historically low growth. NHE in November 2012 grew by 4.1 percent relative to November 2011. Health care prices in November 2012 were 2 percent higher than in November 2011, with a 12-month moving average at 2.1 percent that is fractionally above its 14-year low.

January 2013 Health Sector Economic Indicators Briefs (Labor)

Health sector employment closes the year with a bang. Health care employment rose by 45,000 jobs in December 2012, the second highest increase in over a decade, and well above the 24-month average of 26,000. All health care settings grew at above average levels: ambulatory services (+23,000 versus a 24-month average of 16,000), hospitals (+12,000 versus average 7,000), and nursing and residential care (+10,000 versus average 3,000). Total nonfarm jobs in December grew by 155,000, near the average of 153,000 seen in both 2011 and 2012. October and November were revised upward by 14,000 jobs. These figures were based on the establishment survey. The companion household survey showed no change in the unemployment rate of 7.8% (revised from 7.7% to 7.8% for November), and no change to the labor force participation rate. The combination of an average level of overall job growth and very strong health sector growth in December drove the health sector share of total employment to another high of 10.84%.

Download January 2013 Labor Brief (in PDF)

December 2012 Health Sector Economic Indicators Briefs

National health expenditures in October 2012 grew by 3.5 percent relative to October 2011, down two-tenths from the September rate, and representing the sixth consecutive month of below 4 percent growth. At 3.7 percent, the six-month average growth rate is now below the all-time low (full-year) rate of 3.8 percent recorded in 2009. Some of the very low growth in October, however, may be attributable to Hurricane Sandy. October 2012 health care prices were 2.1 percent above October 2011, a rise from the historically low 1.9 percent September rate, but still well-contained. Hospital price growth rose to 2.6 percent, and nursing home care prices rose by 2.3 percent from a low September rate of 1.0 percent. The latest employment data show 20,000 health sector jobs added in November 2012, a sharp departure from the revised 34,000 new jobs in October, though close to the 24-month average of 25,000. It is unclear the extent to which the decline in this data from previous months are related to Hurricane Sandy. Health employment as a share of the total hit another all-time high of 10.81 percent.

November 2012 Health Sector Economic Indicators Briefs (Spending and Prices)

National health expenditures in September 2012 grew by 3.7 percent relative to September 2011, ticking down a tenth from the August rate, and representing the fifth consecutive month of below 4 percent growth. At 4.0 percent, the average monthly rate of growth in spending, year-to-date is barely above the all-time low rate of 3.8 percent recorded in 2009. Health care prices in September 2012 were only 1.9 percent above September 2011, the lowest reading in over 14 years. Hospital price growth dropped to 2.4 percent in September after an unusual spike in August.

November 2012 Health Sector Economic Indicators Briefs (Labor)

Health care employment rose by 31,000 jobs in October 2012, above the 24-month average of 25,000. Ambulatory services added 24,000 jobs, higher than the average of 16,000, with much of the growth in physician offices (+11,000) and home health (+8,000). Hospitals added 6,000 jobs, just under the average of 7,000. Nursing and residential care were flat and continues to show the weakest job growth in the health sector. Total nonfarm jobs in October grew by 171,000 and previous months were revised upward by 84,000 jobs. The companion survey was quite positive, with a growth of 410,000 employed, an increase in the labor force of 578,000, and a unemployment rate slightly up to 7.9%.The strong health showing in October kept total employment at 10.81%.

Download November 2012 Labor Brief (in PDF)

October 2012 Health Sector Economic Indicators Briefs (Spending and Prices)

National health expenditures in August 2012 grew by 3.8 percent relative to August 2011, equaling the July rate, and representing the fourth consecutive month of below 4 percent growth. The 2012 average rate of growth in spending at 4.1 percent is down sharply from the estimated 2011 average of 5.2 percent and helps alleviate fears of a new acceleration in overall health spending. Conversely, a spike in hospital prices drove overall health care prices in August 2012 to 2.4 percent above their August 2011 level, the highest reading in almost two years.

October 2012 Health Sector Economic Indicators Briefs (Labor)

Health care employment rose by 44,000 jobs in September 2012, the second highest health sector gain in a decade, and significantly higher than the 24-month average of 25,000.Ambulatory services added 30,000 jobs, nearly double the average of 16,000, with much of the growth in outpatient care centers (+9,000). Hospitals added 8,000 jobs, just over the average of 7,000. Nursing and residential care added 6,000 jobs, with nursing homes adding 1,500, although nursing home employment is still down year-over-year.Total nonfarm jobs in September grew by 114,000 and July and August revisions added 86,000 jobs to previous estimates, based on the establishment survey. The companion survey of households looked far rosier, with a growth of 873,000 employed, an increase in the labor force of 418,000, an increase in average earnings, and a three-tenths drop in the unemployment rate to 7.8% (the lowest reading since January 2009).The very strong health showing in September drove the health sector share of total employment to a new high of 10.81%.

Download October 2012 Labor Brief (in PDF)

September 2012 Health Sector Economic Indicators Briefs (Spending and Prices)

National health expenditures in July 2012 grew by 4.2 percent relative to July 2011, up from the 3.9 percent growth rate observed in June, but still representing a historically moderate trend rate. The 2012 average rate of growth in spending at 4.3 percent is down sharply from the estimated 2011 average of 5.2 percent, and is close to the record low growth of 3.9 percent recorded in 2010.Health care prices in July 2012 were up 1.9 percent from July 2011, down fractionally from June. On a 12-month moving average basis, price growth is now lower than at any time since January 1999.

September 2012 Health Sector Economic Indicators Briefs (Labor)

Health care employment rose by 17,000 jobs in August 2012, a continued source of new jobs, but the third consecutive month of below average growth (24-month average is 24,000). Ambulatory services added 14,000 jobs (just below the 15,000 average) and hospitals added 6,000 jobs (equal to the average) in August. The decline in health sector growth was driven by nursing and residential care facilities, down by 3,000 jobs in August compared to an average monthly increase of 3,000. Total nonfarm employment in August grew by only 96,000 jobs, well below the 24-month average of 141,000. The unemployment rate decreased to 8.1%, but this was associated with a drop in the labor force.

Download September 2012 Labor Brief (in PDF)

August 2012 Health Sector Economic Indicators Briefs (Spending and Prices)

National health expenditures in June 2012 grew by 3.9 percent relative to June 2011, down from the 4.2 percent growth rate observed in May, after incorporating the effects of major government updates. Annual revisions in government data show growth in spending from 2010 to 2011 at 5.2 percent versus the previous estimate of 4.3 percent. Health care prices in June 2012 were up 1.9 percent from June 2011, ticking down a tenth from May. On a 12-month moving average basis, price growth is lower now than at any time since January 1999.

August 2012 Health Sector Economic Indicators Briefs (Labor)

Health Market Insights from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) July 2012 Employment Data shows that health employment growth slows mid-year. Health care employment rose by 12,000 jobs in July 2012, the second month of growth at half the usual pace (24-month average is 24,000). Ambulatory services added about 9,000 jobs, higher than last month’s revised 4,000 jobs, but well below the average of 15,000. After a strong first quarter and a flat second quarter, hospitals added a near-average 5,000 jobs in July. Following two quarters of above average growth, nursing and residential care facilities dropped 2,000 jobs in July. Overall nonfarm employment in July grew by an improved 163,000 jobs, a bit above the 24-month average of 138,000 and the highest increase since February 2012. However, results from the household survey were less positive: the size of the labor force decreased, the number of employed declined, and the unemployment rate rose slightly to 8.3%.

Download August 2012 Labor Brief (in PDF)

July 2012 Health Sector Economic Indicators Briefs (Spending and Prices)

Health spending in May 2012 grew by a modest 3.8 percent compared to May 2011, continuing a trend of roughly 4 percent annual growth since 2009. Health care prices in May 2012 were 2.0 percent higher than in May 2011, ticking up a tenth from April. On a 12-month moving average basis, price growth is lower now than at any time since January 1999.

July 2012 Health Sector Economic Indicators Briefs (Labor)

The Health Market Insights from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) June 2012 Employment Data shows that health employment slows amid sluggish overall job market. Health care employment rose by 13,000 jobs in June 2012, about half the 24-month average of 25,000. Ambulatory services, which have typically led health sector growth, added fewer than 5,000 jobs, the lowest increase since August 2008. After a strong first quarter, hospitals showed below average growth in the second quarter, adding just 4,000 jobs in June. Only nursing and residential care facilities showed above average growth in June, adding 4,500 jobs versus an average of 3,000. Overall nonfarm employment in June grew by a disappointing 80,000 jobs. The labor force participation rate was unchanged, and the unemployment rate remained at 8.2%. Even with low job growth, the health share of total employment hit a new record of 10.8%.

Download July 2012 Labor Brief (in PDF)

June 2012 Health Sector Economic Indicators Briefs (Spending and Prices)

New data on health spending suggests the nation is in a fourth consecutive year of historically low growth, continuing a trend of roughly 4 percent growth since 2009. Health care spending grew by just 3.9 percent in April 2012 relative to April 2011, down slightly from the 4.0 percent growth rate observed in March 2012. Health care prices in April 2012 were 1.9 percent higher than in April 2011, but this increase has brought price growth barely above its February 2012 14-year low of 1.8 percent.

June 2012 Health Sector Economic Indicators Briefs (Labor)

The Health Market Insights from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) May 2012 Employment Data shows that health employment is a bright spot in a disappointing jobs report. Health care employment rose by 33,000 jobs in May 2012, well above the 24-month average of 25,000. March and April health jobs were revised upward by 9,000 jobs, whereas overall employment was revised downward by 49,000 jobs. Most of the new health jobs in May were in ambulatory care, which added 23,000 jobs, led by 10,000 in physician offices and 7,000 in home health. Hospitals added a below-average 4,500 jobs. Overall nonfarm employment in May grew by 69,000 jobs, about half the number predicted. The unemployment rate rose slightly to 8.2%, but the underlying data for this rate actually provide some good news, showing a significant increase in the labor force of 640,000, including an increase of 422,000 employed persons.

Download June 2012 Labor Brief (in PDF)

May 2012 Health Sector Economic Indicators Briefs

Health care job growth slowed in April, with just 19,000 new jobs created compared to the 24-month average of 24,000 jobs. Prior to April, job growth for the first quarter of 2012 was 97,000, leaving the health share of national employment at a record high of 10.8 percent. Since December 2007, the health sector has added 1.2 million jobs, a cumulative growth of 9.2 percent. This month’s data also reveal that health spending grew at 4.0 percent year-over-year in March 2012, just above the record full-year low of 3.8 percent set in 2009. Health care prices in March 2012 were 1.9 percent higher than in March 2011, bringing growth barely above its February 2012, 14-year low. The March 2012 12-month moving average price growth of 2.1 percent is the lowest since December 1998.The health spending share of GDP was 18.0 percent in March 2012, up from 16.4 percent at the start of the recession (December 2007), but down from the all-time high of 18.2 percent in June 2011.

April 2012 Health Sector Economic Indicators Briefs

Health care prices rose just 1.8 percent in February 2012, the lowest rate of inflation since April 1998. Price growth for nearly all health categories moderated, especially hospital care and physician services. Altarum’s data also reveal that health spending growth continues a downward trend begun in February 2011, with 3.9 percent growth in February 2012 compared to February 2011, hovering around the record full-year low of 3.8 percent in 2009. With 26,000 new health care jobs created in March, health care employment hit another all-time high of 10.8 percent of total employment. This was slower than the rapid growth seen in February but still above the two-year average of 24,000 per month.Health spending growth rates have been falling over the last 12 months and growth in per capita health care utilization has been steady at an average of 0.8 percent in the last six months. The health spending share of GDP was 18 percent in January 2012, up from 16.4 percent at the start of the recession (December 2007), but down from the all-time high of 18.2 percent in June 2011.

March 2012 Health Sector Economic Indicators Briefs

January and February 2012 saw the largest ever two-month increase in health care jobs, with 49,000 new jobs created in February and 43,000 in January. The soaring job creation has brought the health sector share of total national employment to an all-time high of 10.8 percent. Altarum’s data also reveal that health spending growth continues a downward trend begun in February 2011, with just 3.4 percent growth in January 2012 compared to January 2011, hovering around the record full-year low of 3.8 percent in 2009. Health care inflation, hitting 2.0 percent in January, remains at the lowest level in 13 years. With steady price inflation, and the rate of spending growth falling in the last 12 months, growth in per capita health care utilization slowed to an average of 0.4 percent in the last three months. The health spending share of GDP was 18.0 percent in December 2011, up from 16.4 percent at the start of the recession (December 2007), but down from the all-time high of 18.2 percent in June 2011.

February 2012 Health Sector Economic Indicators Briefs

New analysis shows that health care spending in the U.S. in 2011 grew at one of the slowest rates in 50 years. Altarum’s reports provide the first look at full-year 2011, showing health spending at $2.71 trillion. Spending was up 4.4 percent from 2010—the third slowest rate of growth since national health expenditures have been tracked. The health spending share of gross domestic product was 18.1 percent in December 2011, up from 16.4 percent at the start of the recession (December 2007), but down slightly from the all-time high of 18.2 percent in June 2011. Altarum’s data indicate that health care price inflation was only 2.1 percent for all of 2011, the lowest annual figure since 1998, when it stood at 2.0 percent. Health employment in January 2012 rose by 31,000, well above the 2-year average of 22,000 jobs and contrasting with weak employment growth seen in the last quarter of 2011. At 10.73 percent of all jobs in January 2012, the health employment share is fractionally lower than the all-time high of 10.74 percent in October 2011.

January 2012 Health Sector Economic Indicators Briefs

Over the first 11 months of 2011, health spending has grown at an annual rate of 4.5 percent, compared to the 3.9 percent increase for 2010. This growth was driven by high spending early in 2011 followed by a gradual, steady decline. Spending grew by only 3.6 percent in November 2011 relative to November 2010. Thus, while spending for 2011 as a whole is up, the nation will likely enter 2012 with health spending growth near the record-low levels experienced in 2009 and 2010. Health care price inflation was 2.0 percent in November, a rate that has been steady throughout 2011, indicating the early 2011 jump in health spending can be traced to a bounce back in per capita health care utilization, which exhibited almost no growth in 2010. Health employment in December rose by 23,000 jobs, just under the 2-year average of 24,000. The health spending share of GDP was 17.8 percent in October 2011, up from 16.4 percent at the start of the recession (December 2007) but down from the all-time high of 18.2 percent in June 2011.

December 2011 Health Sector Economic Indicators Briefs

October health price inflation, at 1.9 percent, represents a 13-year low; health spending growth in October ticked down to 5.0 percent, and health employment in November exhibited below-average growth of 17,000 jobs. Total health spending growth fell from its September value of 5.2 percent (year-over-year), brought down by slower growth in hospital, physician services, and nursing home spending. The health spending share of the total economy, currently at 18.1 percent, appears to be stabilizing around 18 percent, and is barely off its all-time high of 18.2 percent reached in June 2011. The December briefs show health jobs up 17,000 in November and include an important upward revision to October job growth, from 12,000 to 24,000.

November 2011 Health Sector Economic Indicators Briefs

Health price inflation remains flat – up only 2.1 percent in September compared to September 2010 – continuing an 8-month trend of near 2 percent inflation. Total health spending, led by higher hospital spending, grew by 5.2 percent in September relative to September 2010. The average spending growth rate for the third quarter of 2011 was also 5.2 percent, compared to 4.8 percent growth in the second quarter of 2011. The health spending share of the total economy remains above 18 percent for the fifth consecutive month. The November briefs also point to a slower rate of health employment for October, with a rise of 12,000. The previous three months, on average, saw 36,000 health jobs added per month.

October 2011 Health Sector Economic Indicators Briefs

Health spending in August grew by 5.0 percent relative to August 2010, matching the annualized growth rate for the first eight months of 2011. This contrasts with the 9 percent increase in family premiums recently reported for 2011. Health care prices were up only 2.1 percent compared to August 2010 – well below economy-wide inflation. Between August and September, the health sector added 44,000 jobs, the largest monthly gain in nearly a decade, resulting in yet another record share of total jobs.

September 2011 Health Sector Economic Indicators Briefs

The health care spending share of GDP reached an all-time high of 18.2 percent in June 2011. Health spending in July 2011 grew by 5.1 percent relative to July 2010, yet health care price inflation for the same period remained subdued at 2.2 percent. Finally, the September briefs indicate that the health sector continues to create jobs – 30, 000 in August – despite last month’s report of zero growth in jobs for the overall economy. Health now accounts for 10.8 percent of total employment – an all-time high.

August 2011 Health Sector Economic Indicators Briefs

The health care spending share of GDP reached 18 percent in June 2009 and is now at 18.1 percent. This finding is attributable to newly-released government data showing that the recession was even worse than first depicted and that GDP has not returned to its pre-recession peak.

Revised data show that the health spending share of GDP grew from 16.3 percent to 18.0 percent from the start of the recession in December 2007 to its end in June 2009. Hitting 18 percent of GDP for the first time is clearly noteworthy, especially when roughly half of health spending is financed by the government. However, weak economic growth rather than high health spending growth is the main culprit for the increase. Health care spending and prices continued their moderate growth in June and employment sharply rebounded in July after two slow months.

The health care spending, price, and labor briefs, now released simultaneously each month, provide a unique opportunity to examine these data in an integrated manner.

July 2011 Health Sector Economic Indicators Briefs

Health care spending in the first four months of 2011 grew at an annual rate of 4.7 percent, up from 3.9 percent growth in 2010. Higher spending growth was attributed to a rebound in health care utilization as health care price inflation has actually slowed in recent months.

The health care spending, price, and labor briefs, now released simultaneously each month, provide a unique opportunity to examine these data in an integrated manner.

June 2011 Health Sector Economic Indicators Brief (Prices)

In the June 2011 brief, data indicate that health care prices in April 2011 were 2.0 percent higher than in April 2010 – the fourth consecutive month of 2 percent or less growth. Prices for hospitals and for physicians each grew by only 1.5 percent, year over year, in April. These sectors were large enough to offset the 4.3 percent growth in prices for prescription drugs and hold overall growth at 2 percent.

Download June 2011 Brief (in PDF)

May 2011 Health Sector Economic Indicators Brief (Labor)

In the May 2011 brief, data indicate that private sector health care employment in the United States grew by 37,300 in April, the largest monthly increase since December 2006. Employment in physician offices and hospitals showed the greatest acceleration with growth rates doubling compared to their 12 month trends.

Download May 2011 Brief (in PDF)

April 2011 Health Sector Economic Indicators Brief (Prices)

In the April 2011 brief, data indicate that health care prices in March 2011 were 1.9 percent higher than in March 2010 – the third consecutive month of less than 2 percent growth with particularly slow growth in hospital and physician prices.These two sectors were large enough to offset the 4.0 percent growth in prices for prescription drugs and hold overall growth below 2 percent.

Download April 2011 Brief (in PDF)

March 2011 Health Sector Economic Indicators Brief (Spending)

In the March 2011 brief, data indicate that health spending in January 2011 grew by 4.4 percent compared to January 2010—the 28th consecutive month of historically low growth. This brief shows that health spending growth for the 28 months from October 2008 through January 2011 has averaged 3.9 percent and has not exceeded 4.4 percent for any given month. The health spending share of GDP was 17.7 percent in January 2011, up from 16.3 percent at the start of the recession (December 2007), but relatively unchanged from January 2010.

Download March 2011 Brief (in PDF)

February 2011 Health Sector Economic Indicators Brief (Labor)

In the February 2011 brief, data indicate that private sector health care employment in the United States reached an all-time high of 10.7 percent of total employment. This health sector employment share is an increase of more than one percentage point since the start of the recession in December 2007 when the share stood at 9.5 percent.

Download February 2011 Report (in PDF)